Started May 27, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closing Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

At close of business on 31 December 2022, what will be the upper limit of the US federal funds target range?

The Federal Reserve has begun tightening monetary policy as the US faces historic levels of inflation (CNBC). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) (FRED, Federal Reserve). As of Friday 27 May 2022, the upper limit of the US federal funds target range was 1.00%.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Lower than 1.75 0.00% +0.00% +0.00% +0.00%
Between 1.75 and 2.25, inclusive 2.00% +0.00% -1.00% -2.00%
Higher than 2.25 but lower than 3.25 4.00% +0.00% -1.00% -20.00%
Between 3.25 and 3.75, inclusive 15.00% +0.00% -6.00% -45.00%
Higher than 3.75 79.00% +0.00% +8.00% +67.00%

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