kerryb asks:
What will President Biden’s approval rating be as of 31 October 2022, according to FiveThirtyEight?
Closed Oct 31, 2022 07:01AM UTC
The outcome will be determined using "All polls" data provided by FiveThirtyEight's "How [un]popular is Joe Biden?" page (FiveThirtyEight). As of 4 June 2022, Biden's approval rating was 40.8%. The data for 31 October 2022 will be accessed for resolution at approximately 5:00PM ET on 4 November 2022.
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The question closed "Higher than 40.0% but lower than 45.0%" with a closing date of 31 October 2022.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Lower than 35.0% | 1% | |
| Between 35.0% and 40.0%, inclusive | 9% | |
| Higher than 40.0% but lower than 45.0% | 88% | |
| Between 45.0% and 50.0%, inclusive | 2% | |
| Higher than 50.0% | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 162 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 840 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
