Started Jun 17, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Dec 23, 2022 08:01AM UTC

What will be the closing spot price for US natural gas on 23 December 2022?

Show background information

Rising demand, supply chain problems, and Russian supplies limited by the war in Ukraine have pushed US natural gas prices to multiyear highs (Natural Gas Intelligence, BBC, CNBC). The question will be suspended on 22 December 2022 and the outcome determined using US Energy Information Administration data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) (FRED).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

The question closed "Between 7.00 and 8.50, inclusive" with a closing date of 23 December 2022.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 4.00 1%
Between 4.00 and 5.50, inclusive 43%
More than 5.50 but less than 7.00 44%
Between 7.00 and 8.50, inclusive 8%
More than 8.50 but less than 10.00 3%
Between 10.00 and 11.50, inclusive 1%
More than 11.50 but less than 13.00 0%
Between 13.00 and 14.50, inclusive 0%
More than 14.50 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 64
Average for questions older than 6 months: 239
Number of Forecasts 596
Average for questions older than 6 months: 658
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
JanL
-0.116
2.
J-W
-0.111
3.
Irfan-Ali
-0.098
4.
SE_Meyer
-0.09
5.
RaoulLeBlanc
-0.084

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username
Cancel