What will be the closing spot price for US natural gas on 23 December 2022?
Closed Dec 23, 2022 08:01AM UTC
Rising demand, supply chain problems, and Russian supplies limited by the war in Ukraine have pushed US natural gas prices to multiyear highs (Natural Gas Intelligence, BBC, CNBC). The question will be suspended on 22 December 2022 and the outcome determined using US Energy Information Administration data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) (FRED).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Between 7.00 and 8.50, inclusive" with a closing date of 23 December 2022.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 4.00 | 1% | |
| Between 4.00 and 5.50, inclusive | 43% | |
| More than 5.50 but less than 7.00 | 44% | |
| Between 7.00 and 8.50, inclusive | 8% | |
| More than 8.50 but less than 10.00 | 3% | |
| Between 10.00 and 11.50, inclusive | 1% | |
| More than 11.50 but less than 13.00 | 0% | |
| Between 13.00 and 14.50, inclusive | 0% | |
| More than 14.50 | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 64 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 596 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
