Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel of India and the People's Republic of China before 1 January 2023?
Closed Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
Two years after a deadly clash left dozens dead, tensions between China and India remain high (Diplomat, The National, Outlook India, Al Jazeera). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3.67% | |
| No | 96.33% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 145 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 535 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | worse than average |
