Started Jul 12, 2022 09:00PM UTC   •   Closing Oct 16, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Assuming that the Earth's global average surface temperature increases by 7°F in 2100 as compared to 1880, what will be the yield of cereals per hectare in the world in 2100, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)?

Measurements of global average surface temperature have increased since the 1880 (Climate.gov, Center for Climate and Energy Solutions). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the FAO (FAO). In the "COUNTRIES" box, select "REGIONS" and select "World + (Total)." For "ELEMENTS," select only "Yield." In the "ITEMS" box, select "ITEMS AGGREGATED" and select "Cereals, Total + (Total)," which is under "Crops Primary > (List)." For "YEARS," select whatever years for which you want to see data. Finally, click either "Show Data" or "Download Data" at the bottom and see the "Value" column. The values returned are hectograms per hectare, which is one-tenth of a tonne per hectare. In 2020, the yield of cereals per hectare was 4.07 tonnes.

This question will be suspended on 15 October 2022. While forecasts on this question may be evaluated in the years to come, they will not be scored.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Less than 2.00 tonnes 14.10% +0.00% +0.00% +0.00%
Between 2.00 tonnes and 5.00 tonnes, inclusive 14.20% +0.00% +0.00% +0.00%
More than 5.00 tonnes but less than 8.00 tonnes 42.00% +0.00% +0.00% +0.00%
Between 8.00 tonnes and 11.00 tonnes, inclusive 24.80% +0.00% +0.00% +0.00%
More than 11.00 tonnes 4.90% +0.00% +0.00% +0.00%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username