Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Before 31 March 2023, will the weekly average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in the US fall below 4.55%?
Closed Mar 30, 2023 07:01AM UTC
Mortgage rates in the US have risen considerably in 2022 (CNBC, US News & World Report). The outcome will be determined using Freddie Mac 30-year fixed rate mortgage average data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). For the week ending 21 July 2022, the weekly average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in the US was 5.54%.
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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 30 March 2023.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3.40% | |
| No | 96.60% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 73 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 229 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 273 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 637 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
