Started Jul 29, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

How much coal will the US export in the fourth quarter of 2022, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA)?

Amid a looming potential energy crisis in Europe, coal demand as begun rising (Oil Price, Metal Miner, S&P Global). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using data for October, November, and December 2022 as reported in the EIA's Monthly Energy Review that first includes data for December 2022 (EIA). On the EIA page, click "+Coal" and download the "XLS" report for "6.1 Overview." The relevant data are in the column titled "Coal Exports (Thousand Short Tons)." In the fourth quarter of 2021, the US exported 21,650.736 short tons (7,259.097 in October 2021, 6,994.391 in November 2021, and 7,397.248 in December 2021). According to the July 2022 Monthly Energy Review, the US exported 21,763.369 short tons of coal in the fourth quarter of 2021 (7,516.323 in October 2021, 6,834.235 in November 2021, and 7,412.811 in December 2021).

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Possible Answer Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 20,000 tons 8%
Between 20,000 tons and 22,000 tons, inclusive 68%
More than 22,000 tons but less than 24,000 tons 10%
Between 24,000 tons and 26,000 tons, inclusive 10%
More than 26,000 tons 4%
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