Will federal legislation providing for the establishment of a US interagency committee on global catastrophic risk become law before 1 January 2023?

Started Jul 29, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC
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On 23 June 2022, US Sens. Rob Portman and Gary Peters introduced a bill entitled the "Global Catastrophic Risk Management Act of 2022," which would require the president to establish an interagency committee on catastrophic risk (Congress.gov, Senate Committee on Homeland Security & Governmental Affairs).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.06%
No 99.94%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 42
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 170
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.091
2.
-0.084
3.
-0.066
4.
-0.058
5.
-0.055

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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