Started Aug 02, 2022 10:00PM UTC   •   Closing Oct 16, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Assuming that the Earth's global average surface temperature increases by 7°C in 2100 as compared to 1880, what will be the yield of cereals per hectare in the world in 2100, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO)?

Measurements of global average surface temperature have increased since the 1880 (Climate.gov, Center for Climate and Energy Solutions). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the FAO (FAO). In the "COUNTRIES" box, select "REGIONS" and select "World + (Total)." For "ELEMENTS," select only "Yield." In the "ITEMS" box, select "ITEMS AGGREGATED" and select "Cereals, Total + (Total)," which is under "Crops Primary > (List)." For "YEARS," select whatever years for which you want to see data. Finally, click either "Show Data" or "Download Data" at the bottom and see the "Value" column. The values returned are hectograms per hectare, which is one-tenth of a tonne per hectare. In 2020, the yield of cereals per hectare was 4.07 tonnes.

This question will be suspended on 15 October 2022. While forecasts on this question may be evaluated in the years to come, they will not be scored.

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NOTE 3 August 2022: One degree Celsius is equal to 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit, meaning that 7°C = 12.6°F.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Less than 2.00 tonnes 38.70% -9.68% -9.68% -10.55%
Between 2.00 tonnes and 5.00 tonnes, inclusive 33.10% +6.72% +6.72% +6.48%
More than 5.00 tonnes but less than 8.00 tonnes 12.80% +6.17% +6.17% +6.18%
Between 8.00 tonnes and 11.00 tonnes, inclusive 3.00% -0.13% -0.13% +0.50%
More than 11.00 tonnes 12.40% -3.10% -3.10% -2.60%

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