Started Aug 02, 2022 10:00PM UTC   •   Closing Oct 16, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Assuming that the Earth's global average surface temperature increases by 7°C in 2100 as compared to 1880, what will be the FAO Food Price Index value for 2100?

Measurements of global average surface temperature have increased since the 1880 (, Center for Climate and Energy Solutions). The outcome will be determined using real (as opposed to nominal) data as reported by the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) (FAO, see first "Excel" hyperlink to download monthly and annual index data back to 1990, see second "Excel" hyperlink to download annual data back to 1961). For 2021, the real Food Price Index was 125.1.

This question will be suspended on 15 October 2022. While forecasts on this question may be evaluated in the years to come, they will not be scored.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

NOTE 3 August 2022: One degree Celsius is equal to 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit, meaning that 7°C = 12.6°F.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Less than 80.0 8.88% -1.26% -1.26% -2.12%
Between 80.0 and 120.0, inclusive 19.00% -2.00% -2.00% -5.00%
More than 120.0 but less than 170.0 10.50% +5.64% +5.64% +3.50%
Between 170.0 and 230.0, inclusive 10.25% +3.54% +3.54% +6.25%
More than 230.0 51.38% -5.91% -5.91% -2.62%

Sign up or sign in to forecast!

Sign Up Sign In
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username