Started Aug 02, 2022 10:00PM UTC   •   Closing Oct 16, 2022 07:01AM UTC

Assuming that the Earth's global average surface temperature increases by 7°C in 2100 as compared to 1880, what will be the decadal average of annual deaths caused by drought in the world from 2091 to 2100, according to Our World in Data (OWiD)?

Measurements of global average surface temperature have increased since the 1880 (Climate.gov, Center for Climate and Energy Solutions). The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the OWiD (OWiD, see "Drought"). For 2020, there were 45 deaths caused by drought.

This question will be suspended on 15 October 2022. While forecasts on this question may be evaluated in the years to come, they will not be scored.

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NOTE 3 August 2022: One degree Celsius is equal to 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit, meaning that 7°C = 12.6°F.

Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Fewer than 10,000 34.33% +0.00% +0.00% -3.30%
Between 10,000 and 50,000, inclusive 6.67% +0.00% +0.00% -1.71%
More than 50,000 but fewer than 250,000 5.22% +0.00% +0.00% -2.03%
Between 250,000 and 1,250,000, inclusive 6.56% +0.00% +0.00% -1.44%
More than 1,250,000 47.22% +0.00% +0.00% +8.47%

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