Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will the annual percent change in the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index be at or below 3.0% by December 2022?

Started Aug 05, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

The PCE Price Index, like the Consumer Price Index, is a measure of inflation used in the US (Investopedia). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2022 and the outcome determined using the Bureau of Economic Analysis' (BEA's) PCE Price Index data as first reported in its monthly Personal Income and Outlays reports (Reports) (BEA - Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index). Subsequent revisions to data for previously-reported months in 2022 would be immaterial. In the Report for June 2022, the percentage change from June 2021 to June 2022 was 6.8% (BEA - Personal Income and Outlays June 2022, see Table 11, Line 1).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 0.26%
No 99.74%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 57
Average for questions older than 6 months: 219
Number of Forecasts 198
Average for questions older than 6 months: 613
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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