probahilliby and belikewater ask:

Before 1 February 2023, will there be an attack on a federal facility in the US resulting in at least ten fatalities?

Started Aug 19, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Feb 01, 2023 08:01AM UTC

After the FBI searched former President Trump's Mar-a-Lago home in August 2022, threats against federal law enforcement have increased (NPR, NBC News, CBS News). The fatalities must occur during the question's open period to count.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 February 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 2.66%
No 97.34%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 124
Average for questions older than 6 months: 236
Number of Forecasts 525
Average for questions older than 6 months: 652
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.003
2.
-0.003
3.
-0.003
4.
-0.003
5.
-0.003

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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