Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel the People's Republic of China (PRC) and those of any other country before 28 November 2022?
Closed Nov 28, 2022 08:01AM UTC
China is dealing with tensions with various countries, including India, Japan, Taiwan, and the US (US News & World Report, Voice of America, Council on Foreign Relations). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side. For the purposes of this question, Taiwan is considered another country.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "No" with a closing date of 28 November 2022.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 2.37% | |
| No | 97.63% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 237 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 220 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 736 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 615 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
