Started Sep 12, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Nov 28, 2022 08:01AM UTC

Will there be a lethal confrontation between the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement personnel the People's Republic of China (PRC) and those of any other country before 28 November 2022?

China is dealing with tensions with various countries, including India, Japan, Taiwan, and the US (US News & World Report, Voice of America, Council on Foreign Relations). A lethal confrontation is one that results in at least one fatality (total, not each) for the national military forces, militia, and/or law enforcement of either side. For the purposes of this question, Taiwan is considered another country.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 28 November 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 2.37%
No 97.63%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 237
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 172
Number of Forecasts 736
Average for questions in their first 3 months: 380
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.004
2.
-0.004
3.
-0.004
4.
-0.004
5.
-0.004

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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