deannalfisher asks:
Before 30 September 2023, will the US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approve a human birth control pill for sale over the counter (OTC)?
Closed Jul 13, 2023 12:00PM UTC
In July 2022, HRA Pharma, a French pharmaceutical company, submitted an application to the FDA for what would be the first OTC birth control pill in the US (NPR, Politico, FDA - Prescription-to-Nonprescription (Rx-to-OTC) Switches). Approval with limits (e.g., age restrictions) would count. Emergency contraceptives would not count (FDA - Birth Control). Approval of a pill for sale OTC without a prescription but "behind the counter" would count (Forbes, National Institutes of Health ).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 13 July 2023.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 75.04% | |
| No | 24.96% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 60 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 271 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
