Between 16 September 2022 and 16 March 2023, will Russia publicly announce that it has moved nuclear weapons into either Belarus or Ukraine?
Closed Mar 17, 2023 07:01AM UTC
As fighting continues in Ukraine, there are continuing concerns that Russia may deploy nuclear weapons westward in the region (ABC News, BBC, DefenseNews). Ukraine includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including Donbas and Crimea. For the purposes of this question, Russia's detonation of a nuclear device in either Belarus or Ukraine would be considered a Russian public announcement that it moved nuclear weapons into either Belarus or Ukraine.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "No" with a closing date of 17 March 2023.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1.04% | |
| No | 98.96% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 131 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 220 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 678 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 615 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
