Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
How many passenger cars will be produced in the EU in 2023?
Started
Sep 28, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC
The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the European Automobile Manufacturers Association (ACEA) (ACEA). As of the launch of this question, the ACEA reported 9,946,696 cars produced in 2021.
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The question closed "Between 11.5 million and 12.5 million, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 9.5 million | 1% | |
| Between 9.5 million and 10.5 million, inclusive | 4% | |
| More than 10.5 million but fewer than 11.5 million | 26% | |
| Between 11.5 million and 12.5 million, inclusive | 60% | |
| More than 12.5 million | 9% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 59 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 207 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 287 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 587 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
