Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
What will be the total number of housing starts in the US in 2023?
Started
Sep 28, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC
Closing Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC
The outcome will be determined using data as reported by the US Census Bureau (US Census Bureau). From the Census Bureau page, download the XLS file for "Housing Units Started." In the file, find the "StartsUA" sheet. The total number of starts in 2021 was 1,601.1 thousand, or 1,601,100.
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| Possible Answer | Crowd Forecast | Change in last 24 hours | Change in last week | Change in last month |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 1.30 million | 3.00% | +0.00% | -1.00% | -1.00% |
| Between 1.30 million and 1.45 million, inclusive | 82.00% | +0.00% | +3.00% | +18.00% |
| More than 1.45 million but fewer than 1.60 million | 12.00% | +0.00% | -2.00% | -16.00% |
| Between 1.60 million and 1.75 million, inclusive | 2.00% | +0.00% | +0.00% | -2.00% |
| More than 1.75 million | 1.00% | +0.00% | +0.00% | +1.00% |