How many new deaths attributed to COVID-19 in the US will be reported between 1 October 2022 and 31 March 2023?
Closed Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
Experts expect a new wave of COVID-19 infections in the winter of 2022-23 (US News & World Report, Nature). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the CDC through and including 31 March 2023 at approximately 5:00PM ET on 3 April 2023 (CDC COVID Data Tracker, click "Data Table for Daily Death Trends - The United States" under the chart, which includes a Download Data option). As of 6 October 2022, the CDC reported a total of 270,334 deaths attributed to COVID-19 between 1 October 2021 and 31 March 2022.
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The question closed "Between 50,000 and 100,000, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 April 2023.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 50,000 | 0% | |
| Between 50,000 and 100,000, inclusive | 99% | |
| More than 100,000 but fewer than 150,000 | 0% | |
| Between 150,000 and 200,000, inclusive | 0% | |
| More than 200,000 but fewer than 250,000 | 0% | |
| Between 250,000 and 300,000, inclusive | 0% | |
| More than 300,000 but fewer than 350,000 | 0% | |
| 350,000 or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 50 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 207 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 294 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 587 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | better than average |
