Started Oct 07, 2022 05:00PM UTC   •   Closed Nov 16, 2022 06:56AM UTC

Will NASA's Artemis 1 mission be launched successfully before 1 January 2023?

The Artemis system is NASA's planned means to return humans to the moon, though its maiden flight has seen delays (NASA - Artemis I, Space.com, NPR). A launch will be considered successful upon a successful core stage separation (NASA - Artemis Core Stage, The Conversation).

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 15 November 2022.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 75.93%
No 24.07%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 66
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 227
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 519
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.11
3.
-0.093
4.
-0.088
5.
-0.088

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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