What will be the US civilian unemployment rate (U3) for March 2023?
Closed Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
As the Federal Reserve increases interest rates to fight inflation, there are concerns that the US labor market will suffer (USA Today, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined using the official civilian unemployment rate (U3) as reported monthly by the US Department of Labor's Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) when first released, expected on 7 April 2023 (BLS).
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The question closed "Between 3.5% and 3.9%, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 April 2023.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 3.5% | 8% | |
| Between 3.5% and 3.9%, inclusive | 75% | |
| More than 3.9% but less than 4.5% | 16% | |
| Between 4.5% and 4.9%, inclusive | 1% | |
| More than 4.9% but less than 5.5% | 0% | |
| Between 5.5% and 5.9%, inclusive | 0% | |
| Higher than 5.9% | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 73 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 288 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
