What will be total OPEC crude oil production for March 2023?

Started Oct 14, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

OPEC and its partners announced at its 5 October 2022 ministerial meeting that it would cut 2 million barrels per day of oil production, much to the disappointment of the Biden administration (OPEC - 33rd OPEC and non-OPEC Ministerial Meeting, The Hill, NPR, NBC News). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined using monthly data for "Total OPEC" as first reported in the "OPEC crude oil production based on secondary sources, tb/d" table of the "World Oil Supply" section of OPEC's Monthly Oil Market Report (OPEC - Monthly Oil Market Report). The September 2022 report shows "Total OPEC" produced 29,651 thousand barrels per day (tb/d) in August 2022 (OPEC - September 2022 Monthly Oil Market Report, see Table 5 - 7 on page 50 in the document).

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The question closed "Between 28,000 tb/d and 29,000 tb/d, inclusive" with a closing date of 1 April 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 26,000 tb/d 1%
Between 26,000 tb/d and 27,000 tb/d, inclusive 1%
More than 27,000 tb/d but fewer than 28,000 tb/d 5%
Between 28,000 tb/d and 29,000 tb/d, inclusive 56%
More than 29,000 tb/d but fewer than 30,000 tb/d 33%
30,000 tb/d or more 5%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 49
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 182
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.131
3.
-0.124
4.
-0.112
5.
-0.098

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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