What will be the weekly average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in the US for the week ending 4 May 2023?

Started Nov 04, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closed May 04, 2023 07:01AM UTC

In October 2022, rates for 30-year mortgages climbed above 7.00% for the first time since 2002, pushed by higher interest rates out of the Federal Reserve (AP, CNBC). The outcome will be determined using Freddie Mac 30-year fixed rate mortgage average data as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) database (FRED). For the week ending 3 November 2022, the weekly average interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages in the US was 6.95%.

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The question closed "Between 6.00% and 7.00%, inclusive" with a closing date of 4 May 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower than 4.00% 0%
Between 4.00% and 5.00%, inclusive 0%
Higher than 5.00% but lower than 6.00% 3%
Between 6.00% and 7.00%, inclusive 93%
Higher than 7.00% but lower than 8.00% 3%
Between 8.00% and 9.00%, inclusive 1%
More than 9.00% 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 42
Average for questions older than 6 months: 207
Number of Forecasts 287
Average for questions older than 6 months: 587
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.047
3.
-0.044
4.
-0.043

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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