The Economist and Private Superforecasting Workshop ask:

In the current conflict in Ukraine, will Russia and Ukraine announce a ceasefire before 5 May 2023?

Started Nov 04, 2022 05:00PM UTC
Closing May 05, 2023 07:01AM UTC

While various parties have called for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, the fighting continues (Al Arabiya, Daily Beast, Parley Policy Initiative). An announced ceasefire must be acknowledged by both Russia and Ukraine to count, and must include the whole of Ukraine. For the purposes of this question, "Ukraine" includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including Donbas and Crimea. The Ukrainian government as recognized by the European Union must be party to the announced ceasefire to count. The date a ceasefire would take effect is immaterial.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Yes 6.33% -0.14% -0.90% -3.00%
No 93.67% +0.14% +0.90% +3.00%

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