Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
When will a ride-hailing service open to the public, which uses autonomous vehicles, be launched and/or tested on public roads in Dubai with passengers?
Closing Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC
Dubai aims to be a leading location in the deployment of autonomous vehicles and has an agreement with Cruise for the deployment of a ride-hailing service by 2023, with mapping and testing commencing in July 2022 (Dubai Roads and Transport Authority, The National). The service, while operating or testing, must include members of the public as passengers to count. A service that operates along a fixed route (e.g., shuttles) would not count. A service involving back-up drivers present in the vehicle would not count, but a service involving remote back-up operators would count. A qualifying service which requires rider prescreening or registration before use would count, and payment for service is not required.
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|Possible Answer||Crowd Forecast||Change in last 24 hours||Change in last week||Change in last month|
|Before 1 January 2023||0.00%||+0.00%||+0.00%||-7.00%|
|Between 1 January 2023 and 30 April 2023||3.00%||+0.00%||-1.00%||-1.00%|
|Between 1 May 2023 and 31 August 2023||12.60%||-0.27%||-1.40%||-3.40%|
|Between 1 September 2023 and 31 December 2023||35.60%||+0.00%||-1.40%||+0.60%|
|Not before 1 January 2024||48.80%||+0.27%||+3.80%||+10.80%|