Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Between November 2022 and December 2023, will workers 15 to 24 years old who are in the labour force of British Columbia (BC) comprise more than 14.6% of the total BC labour force in any month?

Started Nov 25, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 if still open and the outcome determined using data as first reported by Statistics Canada (Statistics Canada, parameters set in link). To retrieve data for a specific month, see the month and year drop-down menus under "Reference period," and click "Apply." Subsequent revisions to data would be immaterial. The percentage of workers 15 to 24 years old who are in the labour force will be determined by dividing the "Labour force" figure for "15 to 24 years" by the "Labour force" figure for "15 years and over" in the relevant month. In October 2022, workers 15 to 24 years old comprised 13.62% (=393.0/2884.6) of the BC labour force.

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 5.30%
No 94.70%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 20
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 71
Average for questions older than 6 months: 585
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.653759
2.
-0.539258
3.
-0.534181
4.
-0.499948
5.
-0.483967

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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