Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

What percentage of the labour force in British Columbia (BC) will be comprised of workers 55 years and older in December 2023?

Started Nov 25, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2024 08:01AM UTC

The question will be suspended on 31 December 2023 and the outcome determined using data as first reported by Statistics Canada (Statistics Canada, parameters set in link). To retrieve data for a specific month, see the month and year drop-down menus under "Reference period," and click "Apply." Subsequent revisions to data would be immaterial. The percentage of workers 55 years and older who are in the labour force will be determined by dividing the "Labour force" figure for "55 years and older" by the "Labour force" figure for "15 years and over" for December 2023. In October 2022, workers 55 years and older comprised 21.87% (=630.8/2884.6) of the BC labour force.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "More than 21.0% but less than 22.0%" with a closing date of 1 January 2024.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 20.0% 1%
Between 20.0% and 21.0%, inclusive 5%
More than 21.0% but less than 22.0% 65%
Between 22.0% and 23.0%, inclusive 19%
More than 23.0% 11%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 25
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 69
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.187
4.
-0.156
5.
-0.109

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username