Dubai Future Experts Candidates ask:

What will be the annual real GDP percentage growth rate for the Emirate of Dubai in the first quarter of 2023 as compared to the first quarter of 2022?

Started Nov 25, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

The question will be suspended on 31 March 2023 and the outcome determined using "Growth Rate %" data as first reported by the Dubai Statistics Center (Dubai Statistics Center - National Accounts, see "Constant Prices" reports). The figure in the PDF file will be used for resolution. In the first quarter of 2022, the real GDP growth rate in the first quarter of 2022 as compared to the first quarter of 2021 was 5.88% (Gross Domestic Product at Constant Prices First Quarter - Emirate of Dubai 2022).

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "Higher by more than 0.00% but less than 3.00%" with a closing date of 1 April 2023.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Lower by more than 3.00% 0%
Lower by between 0.00% and 3.00%, inclusive 25%
Higher by more than 0.00% but less than 3.00% 49%
Higher by between 3.00% and 6.00%, inclusive 26%
Higher by more than 6.00% 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 17
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 32
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.203
2.
-0.162
3.
-0.147
4.
-0.139
5.
-0.124

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username