UBS asks:
What will be the closing spot price for Brent crude oil on 11 April 2023?
Closed Apr 11, 2023 07:01AM UTC
Sanctions on Russian oil, demand concerns for China, and OPEC+ policy are all impacting prices in the near and intermediate term (CNBC, US News & World Report, CNN). The question will be suspended on 10 April 2023 and the outcome determined using US Energy Information Administration data as first reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) (FRED).
This question is part of the UBS Asset Management Investments Recruitment Challenge. Click here for more details.
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "Between $80.00 and $90.00 per barrel, inclusive" with a closing date of 11 April 2023.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than $40.00 per barrel | 0% | |
| Between $40.00 and $50.00 per barrel, inclusive | 1% | |
| More than $50.00 but less than $60.00 per barrel | 2% | |
| Between $60.00 and $70.00 per barrel, inclusive | 6% | |
| More than $70.00 but less than $80.00 per barrel | 20% | |
| Between $80.00 and $90.00 per barrel, inclusive | 59% | |
| More than $90.00 but less than $100.00 per barrel | 9% | |
| Between $100.00 and $110.00 per barrel, inclusive | 2% | |
| More than $110.00 but less than $120.00 per barrel | 1% | |
| $120.00 or more per barrel | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 251 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 792 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
