The Economist asks:
What will be the closing value of the S&P 500 Index on 28 July 2023?
Started
Dec 16, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 28, 2023 07:01AM UTC
Closed Jul 28, 2023 07:01AM UTC
Growth expectations for the S&P 500 in 2023 have moderated going into the end of 2022 (Economist, US News & World Report, JPMorgan). The outcome will be determined using data from S&P as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Database (FRED) (FRED).
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The question closed "More than 4,400 but less than 4,650" with a closing date of 28 July 2023.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than 3,150 | 0% | |
| Between 3,150 and 3,400, inclusive | 0% | |
| More than 3,400 but less than 3,650 | 0% | |
| Between 3,650 and 3,900, inclusive | 1% | |
| More than 3,900 but less than 4,150 | 5% | |
| Between 4,150 and 4,400, inclusive | 18% | |
| More than 4,400 but less than 4,650 | 67% | |
| 4,650 or more | 9% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 241 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 1221 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
