Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
What will be the price per tonne of lithium carbonate in China on 29 December 2023?
Closed Dec 29, 2023 08:01AM UTC
As demand for batteries soars while much of the world works to decarbonize, prices for lithium carbonate have risen more than tenfold from December 2021 to December 2023 (Yahoo Finance, NPR, US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 28 December 2023 and the outcome determined using Chinese price data as reported by Trading Economics (Trading Economics, select "1Yr" on the lower left of the chart). On 20 December 2022, the price per tonne was CNY552,500.
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The question closed "Less than CNY200,000" with a closing date of 29 December 2023.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Less than CNY200,000 | 99% | |
| Between CNY200,000 and CNY325,000, inclusive | 1% | |
| More than CNY325,000 but less than CNY450,000 | 0% | |
| Between CNY450,000 and CNY575,000, inclusive | 0% | |
| More than CNY575,000 but less than CNY700,000 | 0% | |
| CNY700,000 or more | 0% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 57 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 365 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
