How many travelers will the US Transportation Security Agency (TSA) screen in the first quarter of 2023?

Started Dec 30, 2022 06:00PM UTC
Closed Apr 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

The airline industry is striving to return to pre-COVID levels of air traffic in 2023 (Visual Capitalist, US News & World Report). The outcome will be determined using "TSA checkpoint travel numbers" as reported by the TSA (TSA). Totals for the previous four first quarters were 189,566,760 in 2019; 153,166,437 in 2020; 86,850,884 in 2021; and 158,171,113 in 2022.

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The question closed "More than 180 million but fewer than 200 million" with a closing date of 1 April 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 120 million 0%
Between 120 million and 140 million, inclusive 0%
More than 140 million but fewer than 160 million 0%
Between 160 million and 180 million, inclusive 1%
More than 180 million but fewer than 200 million 99%
200 million or more 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 38
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 197
Number of Forecasts 276
Average for questions in their first 6 months: 500
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score


Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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