UBS asks:

What will be the total number of housing starts in the US in the first half of 2023?

Started Jan 06, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closing Jul 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

As interest rates have risen, US homebuilding has declined (US News & World Report). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the US Census Bureau (Census Bureau). From the Census Bureau page, download the XLS file for "Housing Units Started." In the file, find the "StartsUA" sheet. The total number of starts in the first half of 2022 (January through June) was 839.5 thousand, or 839,500. Please note that monthly figures are often reported as annualized rates, and this question is concerned with actual monthly figures.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Fewer than 400,000 1.00% +0.00% +0.00% +0.00%
Between 400,000 and 550,000, inclusive 6.00% +0.00% +0.00% -3.00%
More than 550,000 but fewer than 700,000 62.00% +1.00% +3.00% -4.00%
Between 700,000 and 850,000, inclusive 30.00% -1.00% -3.00% +7.00%
More than 850,000 1.00% +0.00% +0.00% +0.00%

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