UBS asks:

What will be the People's Republic of China's (PRC's) "Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate of the Population Aged from 16 to 24(%)" for June 2023?

Started Jan 06, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jul 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Youth unemployment in the PRC was a problem in 2022, with the unemployment rate for those between 16 and 24 years of age nearly hitting 20% in July 2022 (CNN, France 24). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics of China (National Bureau of Statistics). To access the data, click "The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate" under "Indicators," then click "The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate" option immediately underneath. The relevant data may be found in the row titled "The Urban Surveyed Unemployment Rate of the Population Aged from 16 to 24(%)." Use the horizontal scroll bar to the right to scroll through the monthly data. In January 2022, the rate was 15.3%. Please note that your browser may not recognize the security certificate used by China's National Bureau of Statistics. Statistica also reports these data at the following link, but the data as reported by the National Bureau of Statistics will be used for resolution (Statistica).

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The question closed "20.0% or more" with a closing date of 1 July 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than 14.0% 0%
Between 14.0% and 15.0%, inclusive 0%
More than 15.0% but less than 16.0% 0%
Between 16.0% and 17.0%, inclusive 1%
More than 17.0% but less than 18.0% 1%
Between 18.0% and 19.0%, inclusive 2%
More than 19.0% but less than 20.0% 15%
20.0% or more 81%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 51
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 163
Average for questions older than 6 months: 585
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.671589
2.
-0.620002
3.
-0.553211
4.
-0.531866
5.
-0.48334

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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