How many total Southwest Land Border Encounters will be reported in the US from January 2023 through June 2023 by US Customs and Border Protection (CBP)?
Closed Jul 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
The flow of people illegally crossing the US border with Mexico remains a hot political issue, with President Biden making his first trip to the border in January 2023 (NPR, ABC News, Axios). The question will be suspended on 30 June 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by CBP for the months of January 2023 through June 2023 once data for June 2023 are first reported (CBP). Between January 2022 and June 2022, CBP reported a total of 1,228,213 encounters in the US southwest as of the launch of this question.
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The question closed "More than 900,000 but fewer than 1,100,000" with a closing date of 1 July 2023.
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| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Fewer than 700,000 | 0% | |
| Between 700,000 and 900,000, inclusive | 2% | |
| More than 900,000 but fewer than 1,100,000 | 34% | |
| Between 1,100,000 and 1,300,000, inclusive | 59% | |
| More than 1,300,000 but fewer than 1,500,000 | 3% | |
| 1,500,000 or more | 1% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 38 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 199 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
