When will Jair Bolsonaro return to Brazil?

Started Jan 20, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Mar 30, 2023 09:37AM UTC
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Former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro left Brazil for Florida before President Lula's inauguration on 1 January 2023 (CNN). Brazil's Supreme Court is investigating actions by Bolsonaro supporters at various government buildings in Brasília on 8 January 2023 (AP, NPR).

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The question closed "Between 23 March 2023 and 22 May 2023" with a closing date of 30 March 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Before 20 February 2023 0%
Between 20 February 2023 and 22 March 2023 3%
Between 23 March 2023 and 22 May 2023 57%
Not before 23 May 2023 40%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 47
Average for questions older than 6 months: 208
Number of Forecasts 175
Average for questions older than 6 months: 589
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.284
2.
-0.28
4.
-0.214
5.
-0.202

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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