UBS asks:

Between 3 February 2023 and 30 June 2023, how will the Russell 1000 Growth Index (Growth Index) perform as compared to the Russell 1000 Value Index (Value Index)?

Started Feb 03, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 30, 2023 07:01AM UTC

The question will be suspended on 29 June 2023 and the outcome determined using data as reported by Google Finance (Google Finance - Russell 1000 Growth, Google Finance - Russell 1000 Value). The closing values of each index for 30 June 2023 will be divided by their respective closing values for 3 February 2023 to determine the performance, or percentage change. The difference in percentage points of each calculation will determine the resolution. In the event of an exact tie, the index with the greater percentage increase at any point between the close on 3 February 2023 to the close on 30 June 2023 would be deemed the outperformer.

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The question closed "The Growth Index will outperform the Value Index by 3.0 percentage points or more" with a closing date of 30 June 2023.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
The Growth Index will outperform the Value Index by 3.0 percentage points or more 93%
The Growth Index will outperform the Value Index by less than 3.0 percentage points 1%
The Value Index will outperform the Growth Index by less than 3.0 percentage points 0%
The Value Index will outperform the Growth Index by 3.0 percentage points or more 6%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 47
Average for questions older than 6 months: 206
Number of Forecasts 204
Average for questions older than 6 months: 586
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.255
2.
-0.231
3.
-0.214
4.
-0.201

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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