Between 7 February 2023 and 30 September 2023, will an industrial customer in the US sign a binding sales agreement (aka offtake agreement) to purchase 50 million or more standard cubic feet per day (MSCFD) of blue hydrogen?

Started Feb 07, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC

Offtake agreements between hydrogen producers and energy consumers are seen as key for the growth of the hydrogen industry (World Economic Forum, Investopedia - Offtake Agreement). Natural gas-based hydrogen production with carbon capture and storage is referred to as blue hydrogen (Massachusetts Institute of Technology). For the purposes of this question, “industrial customer” means a recipient of blue hydrogen as part of the processing, producing, or assembling of goods, including the manufacturing, mining, agriculture, and construction industries (EPA). The point of delivery must be in the US to count, and the date of delivery would be immaterial. The signing of an agreement must be made public before 1 October 2023 to count, and an announcement of the agreement by either party would count.

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NOTE 9 February 2023: An agreement to purchase hydrogen in the form of ammonia would not count.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 3.29%
No 96.71%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 34
Average for questions older than 6 months: 205
Number of Forecasts 128
Average for questions older than 6 months: 582
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.356025
2.
-0.340814
3.
-0.299607
4.
-0.213235

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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