Offtake agreements between hydrogen producers and energy consumers are seen as key for the growth of the hydrogen industry (World Economic Forum, Investopedia - Offtake Agreement). Natural gas-based hydrogen production with carbon capture and storage is referred to as blue hydrogen (Massachusetts Institute of Technology). For the purposes of this question, “industrial customer” means a recipient of blue hydrogen as part of the processing, producing, or assembling of goods, including the manufacturing, mining, agriculture, and construction industries (EPA). The point of delivery must be in the US to count, and the date of delivery would be immaterial. The signing of an agreement must be made public before 1 October 2023 to count, and an announcement of the agreement by either party would count.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.

NOTE 9 February 2023: An agreement to purchase hydrogen in the form of ammonia would not count.