Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
What will be total value of US/China trade in goods (exports plus imports) in the first quarter of (Q1) 2024 as compared to the Q1 2023?
Closing Apr 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC
Despite growing tensions, trade between the US and China hit a new record in 2022 (BBC, CNBC). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2024 and the outcome determined using data for Q1 2023 and Q1 2024 as of the first release of March 2024 data in the "U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services" report, expected in March 2024 (Census Bureau - FT900: U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, Historical Releases, Census Bureau - Schedule of Foreign Trade Releases). As of the launch of this question, the Census Bureau reported a total of $13,789.6 (millions of dollars) in goods exported from the US to China, and a total of $37,302.2 (millions of dollars, "Customs basis") in goods imported from China to the US, for a total of $51,092 (millions of dollars) (Census Bureau - December 2022 International Trade Release, see Exhibit 4 on page 56 of 65 in the PDF). Monthly historical data may be downloaded by clicking here: https://goodjudgment.io/docs/US_PRC_Monthly_Trade_2015_-_2022_17_February_2023.xlsx (note that the data in this file will not be revised).
|Possible Answer||Crowd Forecast||Change in last 24 hours||Change in last week||Change in last month|
|Down by 15.0% or more||3.00%||+1.00%||+0.00%||+0.00%|
|Down by more than 5.0% but less than 15.0%||21.00%||+0.00%||+0.00%||-2.00%|
|Between down by 5.0% and up 5.0%, inclusive||48.00%||-1.00%||-2.00%||-1.00%|
|Up by more than 5.0% but less than 15.0%||18.00%||+0.00%||-3.00%||-3.00%|
|Up by 15.0% or more||10.00%||+0.00%||+5.00%||+6.00%|