Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:
Will any territory in Crimea that was Russian-controlled before 24 February 2022 cease to be under "Assessed Russian Control" before 1 August 2023, according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW)?
Closed Aug 01, 2023 07:01AM UTC
Russia seized and annexed Crimea in 2014, but Ukraine may seek to regain the territory as war continues in the country (NBC News, Politico, France 24). The outcome will be determined using data as provided by the Institute for the Study of War's (ISW's) interactive map of Russia's invasion of Ukraine (ISW, labeled "The Autonomous Republic of Crimea").
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 August 2023.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
| Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6.41% | |
| No | 93.59% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
| Participation Level | |
|---|---|
| Number of Forecasters | 115 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 206 | |
| Number of Forecasts | 376 |
| Average for questions older than 6 months: 586 | |
| Accuracy | |
|---|---|
| Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |
