The outcome will be determined using the S&P 500 - Weighted Estimated Earnings dated 29 December 2023 as reported here. The chart will be updated with data on or about the 15th of each month.

For this question, please enter your forecast as three earnings per share (EPS) estimates (specific values, not probabilities). Think of the middle number as your base case, or central forecast, with the others as your bull (top) and bear (bottom) scenarios.

You may do so either using the “Chart Input” or the “Text Input”; please see the buttons under the ribbon that starts with “Forecast”. For the Chart Input, you can drag the three dots for 2023 to the positions you consider appropriate; a brief explanation about each dot will pop up when you hover your cursor over them. For the Text Input, you can type in your three value estimates.

Technically, your top estimate should be the number you are 90% confident the ultimate outcome value will be less than or equal to, and your bottom estimate should be the number you are 90% confident the ultimate outcome will be greater than or equal to. For example, if your base case is 200, enter that number in the middle; if you are 90% confident the outcome will be less than or equal to 300, enter that number at the top; and, finally, if you are 90% confident the outcome will be greater than or equal to 100, enter that number at the bottom.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.