Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

Will Donald Trump be reelected as president of the US in 2024?

Started Apr 13, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 05, 2024 08:01AM UTC

Former President Trump has registered to run for reelection in 2024, though he faces several legal obstacles in the near term (NPR, BBC).

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The question closed "Yes" with a closing date of 5 November 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 38.77%
No 61.23%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 1492
Average for questions older than 6 months: 188
Number of Forecasts 5903
Average for questions older than 6 months: 545
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.996149
2.
-0.919496
3.
-0.917975
4.
-0.88762

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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