DR-R3W asks:

Will the government of Belarus publicly announce or acknowledge that its armed forces have engaged in armed fighting in Ukraine before 21 October 2023?

Started Apr 21, 2023 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 21, 2023 07:01AM UTC

While Belarus has not officially engaged in fighting in Ukraine, there are concerns that it could be drawn into the fighting (CNN, European Leadership Network, Al Jazeera). For the purposes of this question, "Ukraine" includes the boundaries generally recognized by the international community, including Donbas and Crimea. The participation and the announcement/acknowledgement would both have to occur during the question's open period to count. Acknowledging that members of the Belarusian armed forces may have volunteered to fight under Russian or Ukrainian command in a Russian or Ukrainian military unit would not count. Members of the Belarusian armed forces being placed under Russian military command by the Belarusian government and the government of Belarus acknowledging that those Belarusian troops have engaged in fighting in Ukraine would count.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "No" with a closing date of 21 October 2023.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1.06%
No 98.94%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 118
Average for questions older than 6 months: 215
Number of Forecasts 374
Average for questions older than 6 months: 605
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.002
2.
-0.002
3.
-0.002
4.
-0.002
5.
-0.002

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username