Private Superforecasting Workshop asks:

When will Kais Saied flee Tunisia or cease to be its president?

Started May 11, 2023 09:00PM UTC
Closing Feb 12, 2024 08:01AM UTC

Since President Saied consolidating power after dismissing parliament in 2021, Tunisia has faced a series of economic, political, and social problems (Al-Monitor, AP, The National). Whether or not Saied has fled Tunisia will be determined using credible open source media reporting.

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Before 12 August 2023 0.00% +0.00% +0.00% +0.00%
Between 12 August 2023 and 11 November 2023 2.00% +0.00% +0.00% -1.00%
Between 12 November 2023 and 11 February 2024 5.00% +0.00% +0.00% -4.00%
Not before 12 February 2024 93.00% +0.00% +0.00% +5.00%

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