What will be the total domestic box office gross in 2024?

Started Dec 22, 2023 06:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Challenges

With several film projects delayed from 2024 to 2025 due to the writers and actors strikes in 2023, the industry is bracing for subdued theater box office totals in 2024 (Hollywood Reporter, Collider). The question will be suspended on 31 December 2024 and the outcome determined using Domestic Yearly Box Office data as reported by Box Office Mojo once nonestimate data are available for the full 2024 calendar year (Box Office Mojo). As of the launch of this question, Box Office Mojo reported the total Domestic Yearly Box Office for 2022 as $7,369,505,492.

Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.

To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see hereFor other posts from our Insights blog, click here.


The question closed "More than $8.5 billion but less than $9.1 billion" with a closing date of 1 January 2025.

See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.

Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Less than $6.7 billion 0%
Between $6.7 billion and $7.3 billion, inclusive 0%
More than $7.3 billion but less than $7.9 billion 0%
Between $7.9 billion and $8.5 billion, inclusive 1%
More than $8.5 billion but less than $9.1 billion 99%
Between $9.1 billion and $9.7 billion, inclusive 0%
More than $9.7 billion 0%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 26
Average for questions older than 6 months: 173
Number of Forecasts 294
Average for questions older than 6 months: 508
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters better than average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.377869
2.
-0.238492
3.
-0.166763
4.
-0.130382
5.
-0.11479

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username