Which party will win control of the US Senate in the 2024 elections?

Started Jan 19, 2024 06:00PM UTC
Closed Nov 06, 2024 03:00AM UTC

As of 18 January 2024, 34 seats in the US Senate were up for election in 2024, with Democrats hoping to maintain control after retaking the Senate in the 2020 elections (270 to Win). Elections are scheduled for 5 November 2024 (Ballotpedia). If control is dependent upon a runoff election, the suspend date will be extended to the date of the latest relevant runoff. If control is dependent upon a recount or an independent needing to make his or her caucus affiliation known, the question will remain suspended and closed as of 5 November 2024 when the outcome is known.

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The question closed "Republican Party" with a closing date of 5 November 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Democratic Party 30%
Republican Party 70%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 253
Average for questions older than 6 months: 188
Number of Forecasts 787
Average for questions older than 6 months: 545
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.424226
2.
-0.424026
3.
-0.423426
4.
-0.420204
5.
-0.418989

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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