Will Republika Srpska declare independence from Bosnia and Herzegovina before 1 January 2025?

Started Feb 23, 2024 03:00PM UTC
Closed Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC

Leaders of Republika Srpska, a Serb-majority political unit of Bosnia and Herzegovina, have threatened secession over the years as tensions within the country's political structure continue (Deutsche Welle, Anadolu Agency, Newsweek, Sarajevo Times). The exact nature of a declaration of independence is immaterial so long as an official governmental organ of Republika Srpska makes the declaration that it is free and independent of Bosnia and Herzegovina. International recognition will be immaterial, and any claims related to the Brčko District will be immaterial (Guardian).

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The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2025.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 1%
No 99%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 44
Average for questions older than 6 months: 186
Number of Forecasts 201
Average for questions older than 6 months: 539
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

2.
-0.008189
3.
-0.008137
4.
-0.007939

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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