Will Republika Srpska declare independence from Bosnia and Herzegovina before 1 January 2025?
Closed Jan 01, 2025 08:01AM UTC
Leaders of Republika Srpska, a Serb-majority political unit of Bosnia and Herzegovina, have threatened secession over the years as tensions within the country's political structure continue (Deutsche Welle, Anadolu Agency, Newsweek, Sarajevo Times). The exact nature of a declaration of independence is immaterial so long as an official governmental organ of Republika Srpska makes the declaration that it is free and independent of Bosnia and Herzegovina. International recognition will be immaterial, and any claims related to the Brčko District will be immaterial (Guardian).
Confused? Check our FAQ or ask us for help. To learn more about Good Judgment and Superforecasting, click here.
To learn more about how you can become a Superforecaster, see here. For other posts from our Insights blog, click here.
The question closed "No" with a closing date of 1 January 2025.
See our FAQ to learn about how we resolve questions and how scores are calculated.
Possible Answer | Correct? | Final Crowd Forecast |
---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | |
No | 99% |
Crowd Forecast Profile
Participation Level | |
---|---|
Number of Forecasters | 44 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 186 | |
Number of Forecasts | 201 |
Average for questions older than 6 months: 539 |
Accuracy | |
---|---|
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters | average |