How many total vehicles will be sold in the US in the third quarter of 2024?

Started May 31, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Oct 01, 2024 07:01AM UTC

The average age of vehicles on US roads hit a record of 12.6 years in 2024 as interest rates and auto prices temper demand for new vehicles (Voice of America). The question will be suspended on 30 September 2024 and the outcome determined by adding monthly Total Vehicle Sales data from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis for July, August, and September 2024 as reported by the Federal Reserve Economic Data database (FRED) once September 2024 data are first available, expected in October 2024 (FRED). As of the launch of this question, a total of 4.088253 million vehicles were sold in the third quarter of 2023.

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The question closed "At least 3.9 million, but fewer than 4.2 million" with a closing date of 1 October 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Fewer than 3.6 million 0%
At least 3.6 million, but fewer than 3.9 million 5%
At least 3.9 million, but fewer than 4.2 million 74%
At least 4.2 million, but fewer than 4.5 million 19%
At least 4.5 million, but fewer than 4.8 million 1%
4.8 million or more 1%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 40
Average for questions older than 6 months: 188
Number of Forecasts 154
Average for questions older than 6 months: 545
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.059931
2.
-0.059931
3.
-0.043032
5.
-0.03902

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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