Will California voters approve the California Pandemic Early Detection and Prevention Institute Initiative in the 2024 general election?

Started Jun 07, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closed Jun 28, 2024 12:00AM UTC

Supporters of an initiative to increase state personal income taxes to provide funding for pandemic detection and prevention, which included the convicted founder of FTX Sam Bankman-Fried, gathered enough signatures to qualify for the ballot in 2022, though the measure would not appear until 2024 "unless withdrawn by the proponents [Max Henderson and Anna Maybach] prior to certification pursuant to Elections Code section 9604(b)" (Ballotpedia, California Secretary of State, Yahoo [LA Times]).

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The question closed "The initiative will not appear on the 2024 general election ballot" with a closing date of 27 June 2024.

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Possible Answer Correct? Final Crowd Forecast
Yes 46%
No 31%
The initiative will not appear on the 2024 general election ballot 23%

Crowd Forecast Profile

Participation Level
Number of Forecasters 32
Average for questions older than 6 months: 188
Number of Forecasts 72
Average for questions older than 6 months: 545
Accuracy
Participants in this question vs. all forecasters average

Most Accurate

Relative Brier Score

1.
-0.61425
2.
-0.579775
3.
-0.379975
4.
-0.30821
5.
-0.144775

Recent Consensus, Probability Over Time

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