What will be total value of US/China trade in goods (exports plus imports) in the first quarter of (Q1) 2025 as compared to the Q1 2024?

Started Jun 07, 2024 05:00PM UTC
Closing Apr 01, 2025 07:01AM UTC

Trade tensions between the US and China have increased in 2024, with the Biden administration imposing new tariffs on electric vehicles and other goods (AP, MSN [Wall Street Journal], BBC). The question will be suspended on 31 March 2025 and the outcome determined using data for Q1 2025 as of the first release of March 2025 data in the "U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services" report, expected in May 2025 (Census Bureau - FT900: U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services, Census Bureau - Schedule of Foreign Trade Releases). As of the launch of this question, the Census Bureau reported a total of $36,855.7 (millions of dollars) in goods exported from the US to China, and a total of $97,629.0 (millions of dollars, "Customs basis") in goods imported from China to the US, for a total of $134,484.7 (millions of dollars) in Q1 2024 (Census Bureau - March 2024 International Trade Release, see "Year-to-Date" figures in Exhibit 4 on page 54 of 65 in the PDF). That figure will be used for resolution as to Q1 2024, irrespective of any future revisions. The monthly historical data may be downloaded by clicking here: https://goodjudgment.io/docs/US_PRC_Monthly_Trade_2015_-_2024YTD_6_June_2024.xlsx (note that the data in this file will not be revised).

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Possible Answer Crowd Forecast Change in last 24 hours Change in last week Change in last month
Down by 15.0% or more 5.10% 0% 0% +1.20%
Down by more than 5.0% but less than 15.0% 22.00% 0% 0% -6.80%
Between down by 5.0% and up 5.0%, inclusive 45.40% 0% 0% -2.90%
Up by more than 5.0% but less than 15.0% 21.80% 0% 0% +6.20%
Up by 15.0% or more 5.70% 0% 0% +2.30%

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